Visa Bulletin – March 2024

March Visa Bulletin for the FY 2024 was released few days. Here are key insights and updates to it with some predictions.

How to use Demand Data to calculate EB3 to EB2 Porting?

As per visa allocation each year under each category, USCIS/DOL should use 233 visas every month for EB2-India. Normally this should reduce demand by 233 every month. Since we are not seeing any reduction in demand data, it suggests that there are many individuals who are upgrading their case from EB3 to EB2. So what is the rate at which EB3 to EB2 porting is happening? Simple Calculations that could be used to estimate this is ...

EB3 to EB2 Porting with same employer: Not a good idea

These days it is been topic of the town for Indian nationals to port their priority date from EB3 to EB2 category. So far this totally makes sense. This could tremendously reduce the wait time for an individual to receive a green card. But an individual and his employer should be very careful while taking this step if they are planning to port the case with a same (current) employer. There are rumors that many employers are upgrading their employees’ petition from EB3 to EB2 category just to retain their employees.

I-485 Case Tracker for PDs 'Current'

We have released new I-485 case tracker for cases that are 'Current' today. Please use this tracker to enter details of your application and case status. Please fill in as much details as possible and edit the tracker as and when you will get more information on your application status. Use this tracker to see if PDs that has recently became current are getting approved

January 2012 I-485 Pending Inventory - EB Category Visa Use

USCIS released I-485 pending inventory upto 12 January 2012. Please note this inventory is only for Service Centers and Field Offices, and does not contain consular processing cases. Dependents are included. Here is a summary of the I-485 inventory when compared to October 2011 Inventory. This inventory is used to estimate the visa use during Q1 of FY 2012 and Projected Demand for FY 2012.Please note that one fallacy to using inventory to estimate demand is that it will not consider cases approved in less than 90 days.

EB Category Roll-Over and PWMB Demand: I-485 Receipt Data

We analyzed I-485 Approvals and Receipts for FY 2011 to estimate carry-over demand from FY 2011 in EB category. We also used this data in conjunction with USCIS I-485 Performance data and I-485 representative filings from June to September 2011 at trackitt to estimate People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) demand for EB2-IC upto September 2011 that may start consuming visa numbers from FY 2012 annual allocation and/or spillover.

Prediction for EB2 Category for FY 2012

Here is the Prediction for EB2 Category cutoff date retrogression for Fiscal Year 2012. Basis for this prediction is simple calculations (see below) which is done based on available data i.e. PERM data published by DOL, I-485 Inventory data, latest trend on Trackitt for EB1 & EB2 cases and other published data by USCIS. Demand data for each dependent category is predicted and explained in calculations below. This data is further used to calculate spillover that would be available for EB2 category. Retrogression is estimated based on visa allotment available each year for each country and total spillover that is expected in FY 2012. In each case, Optimistic, Realistic and Worst-Case scenario is estimated.

Green Card Calculator - Employment Based

As per recent demand data released until September 01, 2011 on EB I-485 inventory, here is the 'Green Card' calculator for Employment- Based category that tells an individual how many I-485 applicants are there before them in the queue under their filed preference category. Beyond this, calculations are extended to predict how many years will it take an individual to receive a green card. In addition, you can put an assumption for a spillover that your category and country would receive every year and see how this changes the scenario.

What to do once Priority Date (PD) becomes current?

A very commonly asked question by fellow petitioners is the step by step process that they should follow after an individual’s Priority date will become current. Please read this article to check on next steps and required I-485 documents.

I-485 Primary & Secondary Evidence - Country Specific

Commonly asked question is what to do when primary evidence of birth, marriage, divorce etc is not available. Here is the country specific I-485 Required documents for (AOS) or (CP). Immigration officers or Adjudicators are asked to refer to the list below before making any decision on RFE or NOID in case primary evidence is not submitted or established. Please select your country from the drop-down list to see specific secondary evidence and documents.

EB2-India & China I-140 Demand (Yearly) based on DHS Released Report

DHS on 29th December 2011 released a Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman's recommendation to improve the quality in Extraordinary Ability and Other Employment based petition adjudication document. We used this data to deduce I-140 demand for EB2-India and China.

EB2-IC Movements FY 2012 - Mr. Oppenheim's thinking?

We looked into if there is any analytical correlation between movements that Mr. Oppenheim did last year for Family Based Category (F2A) and current movement that we saw with EB2-India and China for Employment Based Category. Is there any correlation or equation or factor that can determine how Mr. Oppenheim would think in absence of demand or visible demand in case number of filings that he is receiving or available adjudicated case cases are less? That is when we started digging into this.

AC21 Portability - FAQs and Sample Letters to USCIS

Some people suggests that sending letter to USCIS on job change after invoking AC-21 portability is not required. But this is a gray area, and no one knows it better if USCIS should be informed when individual would invoke an AC-21 portability to change job once applicant's I-485 is pending for more than 180 days with USCIS.

Understanding Section 245(k) to use it for Derivative applicants after Primary’s I-485 approval

Common question asked by many primary I-485 applicants who had previously filed I-485 Adjustment of Status (AOS) application, which is still pending with USCIS, is about adding their spouses or children (derivatives) to their pending I-485 application. At this point there is always a concern among the petitioner that their case will be approved before their derivatives application

July 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions - EB Category

Here is the prediction for July 2012 Visa Bulletin. We should see following movements in each category as long as USCIS/DOL would use visa numbers as per statutory allocations.

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?

Cut-Off Dates has reached PD 15th April 2007 for EB2-India and China for FY 2011 in September bulletin, now what can we expect for FY 2012?. We have some analysis to estimate movement in FY 2012. This is very rudimentary as of now and can change as FY 2012 will progress.

EB3 ROW-Mexico-Philippines - What to expect in FY 2012?

For FY 2012, EB3-ROW-M-P is expected to move together similar to the movement that was seen for FY 2011. Based on available I-485 inventory, last released demand data, and hidden demand (or Consular Processing demand) that was observed in FY 2011, total EB3-M-P demand until ....

How to know if old I-140 has been revoked by previous employer?

If an individual filing a green card under employment-based category has changed job and now planning to port priority date from previous filed Labor certification, he/she will at least need an approved I-140 from previous employer to recapture priority dates. This I-140 should not be revoked and still active.

Understanding Visa Bulletin Cut-Off Date Determination

The State Department (DOS) is responsible for the allocation of numerically limited immigrant visa numbers under the authority granted by section 203 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA). These visa numbers are allocated based on congressionally mandated preferences that assign an overall total, limits for each category and per country limits within each category. Here is a quick Memo on the steps involved.

'Hard' vs 'Soft' LUD - How to use it to track your case status with USCIS?

If you heard people talking about keeping track of 'Soft' and 'Hard' LUDs on forums and other websites, and wondered what it is, now you can understand what is LUDs and how you can use them to track any activity on your petition that is pending with USCIS.

How to Obtain an Emergency Advance Parole (AP) Document?

If your current status is Adjustment of Status (AOS) Pending and you are currently working on EAD, it is very important that you renew your Advance Parole (AP) document in timely manner, well in advance. If an individual leaves a country under AOS pending status with their AP application pending or AP document due expire when they are traveling outside of country, they will abandon their status in United Status. Subsequently their I-485 application will be denied.

People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB) during July 2007

Question was asked in the comment section that how would applications with Priority date before July 2007 who could not file in July 2007 would affect EB2-IC movement for FY 2011. These people are commonly referred as "People Who Missed the Boat (PWMB)" by some people. We earlier thought that these numbers will small percentage of the whole group. But careful analysis of PERM data suggests that these numbers are significant when you will include primary + dependents (assuming a family would consume 2.5 visas) applications.

EB3 to EB2 Porting Calculations - Part III

We have a poll on EB3 to EB2 Porting which is up since last week of February 2011, and till-date we have received '445' votes. Results has been consistent through out the poll for the last two months. It suggests that the general trend or distribution of individuals with different PD that are porting has not changed from day to day regardless of number of votes received.We are convinced that this will be a general trend for rest of the current year regardless of porting numbers. Calculations are further extended to extrapolate real world numbers.

H1B FY 2012 CAP Count & Predictions

As per recent release by USCIS, regular cap has utilized till date 11,200 visas and Masters quota has utilized 7,900 visas as of 13th May 2011. It is interesting to see that H1B visa under Master Cap has utilized more than 35% of the quota. As of now number of petitions increased from last week is 1,600. Based on past months trend, regular cap can reach by 27th January 2012 and Masters Cap by 30 September 2011.

H1B FY 2012 : List of Disqualified Employers

H1B FY 2012 season will be here soon. It is advisable that the prospective aspirants for H1B FY 2012 should be aware of the debarred or disqualified employer for this season. Please make sure you do not become a bait to any of these employers for your H1B filing. These employers are willful violator employer and are black-listed.

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known.

Document on Tax Exemption for OPT Students and Students on F1B visa

Document or proof stating that OPT students are not required to pay Social Security Taxes and Medicare tax. You can share this with your employer

What is H1B 'CAP Exempt' visa?

Most of the international students after graduation would focus their attention to find a job in corporate world. But it is always difficult to find an employer who will be ready to sponsor your H1B visa. If you are lucky, you may find an employer who is willing to sponsor your work visa, but could not do it because quota is not available at that time or if quota is open, is worried that he may have to wait until start of fiscal year in October before you could begin working for him. What are other options in such case? Well in this case, you can opt for working for organizations that are exempted from H1B visa regular cap quota.

Showing posts with label Approvals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Approvals. Show all posts

Thursday, December 29, 2011

PERM Approvals : Q4 FY 2011

Posted On Thursday, December 29, 2011 by Rav 6 comments

Here is a break down of PERM data (certified and certified_expired only) that was processed each month for FY 2011 Q4. Data has been broken down among different PDs that were approved per month in Q4 FY 2011.  Total 16,937 PERMs were approved in Q4- FY 2011. In addition to this, see PERM database based on PD that is updated until FY 2011.































In addition, please see distribution of PERM approvals segregated based on country of chargeability and category. Most of the PERMs filed in FY 2011- Q4 belonged to India and ROW. It is becoming apparent that with passing time, most of the individuals are filing their cases in EB2 category. 

Most importantly it should be noted that the EB2-ROW-M-P demand is progressing towards around 4000 PERMs per quarter, which if continued through out the year may convert into 4000*2*4 Qtr = 32000 I-485 applications for the fiscal year. This means spillover expected from EB2-ROW-M-P at this rate is 3000-7000 depending upon I-485 denial rate of 0%-15%.


Thursday, August 25, 2011

PERM Approvals & Processing Time : Q3 FY 2011

Posted On Thursday, August 25, 2011 by Rav 12 comments

Here is a break down of PERM data (certified and certified_expired only) that was processed each month for FY 2011 Q3. Data has been broken down among different PDs that were approved per month in Q3 FY 2011. As of now it looks like lot of audit cases until December 2010 are approved. Total 16,886 PERMs were approved in Q3 - FY 2011.































Click Image to Enlarge

In addition, please see distribution of PERM approvals segregated based on country of chargeability and category. Most of the PERMs filed in FY 2011- Q3 belonged to India and ROW. It is becoming apparent that with passing time, most of the individuals are filing their cases in EB2 category. 


PERM processing time as of 22 August 2011 is at May 2011 for new cases. Analysis of Q3 PERM approvals shows that last approved case in FY 2011 was with PD 3rd May 2011.  

 





Wednesday, March 23, 2011

PERM Processing Time Starts to Slump

Posted On Wednesday, March 23, 2011 by Rav 3 comments

DOL recently released current PERM processing times. It looks like fire-sale is almost over and PERM processing time will again start creeping towards 1-2 months wait or more in coming months. 5 days approval will be a history. Temporary Government shutdown is still not in effect and this will delay the processing time further when some decision about it will be made during April 8, 2011. The Senate votes to fund the federal government through April 8. But the stalemate over 2011 spending remains, and no one wants to pass another short-term stopgap. Is the stage now set for a government shutdown next month is yet to be known. How this will affect further processing times no one knows.

PERM Processing Times as of March 9, 2011
    • Analyst Reviews: February 2011
    • Audits: March 2009
    • Standard Appeals: June 2008
    • Government Error Appeals: Current


Wednesday, June 24, 2009

H1B FY 2010 : Applicants are receiving I-797 approval valid for less than 3 years

Posted On Wednesday, June 24, 2009 by Rav 0 comments

There are few reports that applicants who applied for H1B FY 2010 are receiving I-797 Approval with visa validity less than 3 years. This is especially true for the cases filed by staffing and consulting companies.

This is particularly seen with cases, if an applicant has received a request for evidence (RFE) requesting a client letter and project details. Successively, if petitioner fails to submit a project detail stating that beneficiary's services will be needed for next 3 years, individual is more prone to get approval with visa valid for number of years as stated in the clients letter.

In order to avoid such cases, please make sure that your client letter states that services is required for next 3 years. Even if an individual receives an approval with visa valid for less than 3 years, he can extend his visa for the period of next project in the same way as done with regular H1B extension. But this will add to bearing cost of H1B visa for an employer.



Tuesday, May 12, 2009

USCIS Receipts and Approvals : How to Amend Misspelled Name?

Posted On Tuesday, May 12, 2009 by Rav 0 comments

If you recently applied for H1B FY 2010 and received your I-797 receipt, there is a good chance that in excitement, you may overlook some spelling mistakes or wrong printed information. Please do not overlook this fact, as it can be detrimental later on, especially if mistake is present in I-797 approval notice.

It may be easy to amend these mistakes early on, until petitioner's I-797 is not approved. USCIS do acknowledge that few errors occur when scrutinizing so many applications every year. If one realizes that their name is misspelled or there is some other error in the receipt, individual should call the National Service Center at 1-800-375-5283 to request a correction. USCIS customer representative will take the information to correct the error.

Though this may be easy at Receipt level, correcting mistakes will not be that straight forward after an application is approved. In such cases, individual should contact above contact number to follow the correct procedure. In some cases representative might ask you to file an I-824 Application for action on an approved application.

Individual can also call in the following sequence for typo rectification on any of the notices.

1-800-375-5283
Press 1 (for English)
Press 2 (to skip introduction and go to main menu)
Press 2 (For case status)
Press 5 (if there is any typo in any of the notices/receipts)




Thursday, April 23, 2009

H1B FY 2010: Non PP Advanced Degree cases are receiving Approvals

Posted On Thursday, April 23, 2009 by Rav 0 comments

Cases exempted under advanced degree and filed as regular processing have started receiving approvals. So this means that the ball has started rolling for regular cases. Good luck to all the applicants.


Wednesday, April 15, 2009

H1B FY 2010 Applicants Should Start Expecting Approvals

Posted On Wednesday, April 15, 2009 by Rav 0 comments

It has been reported that many applicants, who had applied for H1B Cap FY 2010 have started receiving receipts from USCIS. USCIS would usually go on a case to case basis on issuing receipts, but any application filed under Premium Processing (PP) will be given first preference.

Premium Processing Service provides faster processing of applications. Specifically, USCIS provides 15 calendar day processing to those who choose to use this service or USCIS will refund the Premium Processing fee and the relating case will continue to receive faster processing. Within the 15 day calendar period USCIS will issue an approval notice, or where appropriate, a notice of intent to deny (NOID), a request for evidence (RFE) or open an investigation for fraud or misrepresentation. If the notice requires the submission of additional evidence or of a response to intent to deny, a new 15 calendar day period will begin upon the delivery to USCIS of a complete response to the request for evidence or notice of intent to deny.

There is news that many applicants who have filed under Premium processing (PP) have also started receiving their I-797 approvals. So individuals who have filed under PP should start looking out for the emails from their lawyers. Applicants who have filed petition under regular processing should not worry. It usually takes more than 2-3 weeks before one will get H1B receipts from USCIS. This is far better than last year where each applicant had to wait for 30-40 days even to find if they were selected in the lottery. H1B applicants for FY 2010 should consider themselves lucky that this bad economy was infact a ‘Blessing in Disguise’ for them, with no H1B lottery this year.